Este tipo de textos de calidad, repletos de conocimiento sin forofismo y datos no se leen habitualmente en la prensa deportiva española. Se trata de un análisis que publicó la web football365.com. Arranca con el partido Barcelona-Inter y termina con la controvertida figura de José Mourinho. Reconoce y alaba sus logros en el Porto, Chelsea e Inter y destaca un punto débil de su currículo: el juego de sus equipos, por lo general más dedicados a destruir el del contrario que a potenciar sus habilidades.
The Champions League has debunked a myth, but Jose Mourinho is making himself a Real legend…
* The book ‘Myths and Facts About Football’, released in the late autumn of 2008, declared that the time-honoured belief that playing the second leg of a two-legged cup tie at home delivered a clear advantage was borne out by statistical analysis of over 12,000 ties. ‘Second-leg home advantage exists’ flatly concluded the authors. Yet the size of the advantage was only slightly larger than slight: The probability of the team playing the second-leg at home winning the tie was found to be just 53.77.
Yet the phenomenon has been neutered in recent years in the Champions League. Perhaps it’s just a matter or fluke. Or perhaps a method of making the disadvantage an advantage has been uncovered. Either way, it’s a fact that all four of the teams to reach the Champions League finals of the past two years have done so after playing the first leg at home.
* Are Barcelona paying for their domestic superiority? There’s no reason to experiment with different methods, different formations and different plans when Plan A invariably steamrollers to success. But has the absence of Plan B made them too predictable for a higher class of opponent in the closing stages of the Champions League? Three goals in six Champions League semi-final ties since 2008, with just one scored in the three ties played at the Nou Camp, is a damning and revealing statistic. When football is played as chess, their strategy is too easy to stifle because it’s the only strategy they know how to play.